Futuresource is reporting that 4.2 million smart speakers shipped globally in Q2 2017. This is not too far below what many analysts originally suggested were shipped in all of 2016 and represents an 843% rise over Q2 2016. That means about 445,000 were shipped during the same period last year.
The data comes primarily from Futuresource’s contacts in the audio device supply chain complemented by other data feeds according to Rasika D’Souza, a senior market analyst at the consulting firm. Additional findings of note include:
Sales [were] dominated by the US and UK markets despite availability extending to Germany, China and South Korea during the quarter. Adoption in the US and UK has been relatively swift, with penetration standing at 6% and 3% respectively and with each home owning a little over two speakers per home, on average.
The 6% number tracks pretty closely to Edison Research findings in the same time frame for the U.S. The 3% penetration figure for the UK seems reasonable but is significantly lower than Radiocentre’s estimate of 9%. So, we can tell that this is a different data source.
Another other interesting conclusion is that there are more than “two speakers per home, on average.” Edison Research found 42% of homes had two or more smart speakers in Q2 2017 and Voicebot reversed engineered that data point to about 1.5 speakers per home in the U.S. The figure of more than two per home would support other analyses that suggest the total smart speaker shipments have been much higher than previously reported.
Amazon Echo Accounted for 82% of Q2 Shipments, 90% of Installed Base
The blog post points out that Amazon maintains a 90% market share globally in smart speaker install base. However, some of that share is the result of being early to market. One year ago, the company had arguably 100% share. Voicebot estimated that Amazon closed 2016 with 93% market share. Ms. D’Souza confirmed for Voicebot that Amazon accounted for 82% of smart speaker shipments in Q2 2017. That pace would maintain its U.S. market share that Edison estimated at precisely 82%.
Q3 Will Show Even Greater Growth
The data show that smart speakers are taking over the home audio speaker market. In the first half of 2017, “38% of home audio devices were voice-enabled.” Futuresource’s early estimate are that:
Q3 is on course to break more records.
That seems almost assured given that MIDiA Research estimated that 3.3 million Amazon Echo and Echo Dots were sold on a single day in July. The bigger story will be Q4. With Apple HomePod, Harman Invoke powered by Cortana and new announcements from IFA by Sony, Harman, JBL and others joining Echo and Google Home, we are likely to see sales topping 10 million units.